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April - 2024 RBI Policy View

The MPC policy today was on expected lines. Status quo was maintained on policy rates and the monetary policy stance. Just like the last MPC meeting the decision on policy rates and the monetary policy stance was not a unanimous one with Prof. Varma voting for a rate cut along with the change in monetary policy stance to “Neutral”.

February 2024 RBI Policy View

The MPC policy today was largely on the expected lines and devoid of any major surprises. As expected, status quo was maintained on policy rates and on the monetary policy stance though certain sections of the market, including us, were expecting a change in the stance which did not materialise.

December 2023 RBI Policy View

The MPC policy today was on expected lines and devoid of any major surprises. As expected, status quo was maintained on policy rates as well as on the monetary policy stance.

October 2023 RBI Policy View

The MPC policy today was as hawkish as it could get even as the MPC kept the policy rates unchanged. Flagging inflation as still the "Major Risk", the RBI governor emphatically reiterated that the inflation target is 4% and not 2% to 6%.

June - 2023 RBI Policy View

The MPC meeting today was largely on expected lines as far as policy rates were concerned as the MPC maintained status quo on rates though it was a tad hawkish in its tone and guidance.

April - 2023 RBI Policy View

A pause not a pivot, this is how the RBI governor choose to describe the outcome of the MPC meeting today.

Feb - 2023 RBI Policy View

The MPC hiked the policy rates by 25 bps while retaining the monetary policy stance at “withdrawal of accommodation” with a 4-2 majority.

August - 2022 Macro stability in focus, RBI remains on course for further rate hikes

The MPC Policy today was hawkish than market expectations. The MPC hiked the policy repo rate unanimously by 50 bps which was higher than market expectation of 35bps.

June - 2022 RBI remains on course for further rate hike

Bond yields reacted positively to the policy as the hike was broadly factored in the markets. Some sections of the market were of the view that there can be an increase in CRR and /or rate hike of more than 50 bps.

May - 2022 Dove Turning Hawk

RBI sprang a major surprise on 4th May, by doing an unscheduled MPC meeting over 2-4th May and raising the policy repo rate by 40 bps and CRR by 50 bps. Although we had expected RBI to hike repo rate starting June meeting, the 4th May repo

Dec - 2021 Is RBI Really that Dovish

The MPC meeting today, left the policy rates unchanged while retaining the accommodative stance. The decision to leave the policy rates unchanged was unanimous though Prof. Jayanth Varma dissented from the view of retaining the accommodative stance.

Oct - 2021 RBI’s fourth bi-monthly policy

At the 4th bi-monthly policy today, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) through an unanimous vote decided to hold all the key rates unchanged. At the previous policy, the MPC through a 5-1 vote had agreed to retain an “accommodative stance” for as long as necessary to help revive and sustain durable growth.

Aug - 2021 RBI’s third bi-monthly policy

At the 3rd bi-monthly policy today, RBI through an unanimous vote decided to hold all the key rates unchanged. Through a less than unanimous vote (5-1), the MPC as in the previous meetings agreed on a “accommodative stance” for as long as necessary to help revive and sustain durable growth.

June - 2021 A dovish and pro-growth policy, reiterating support to liquidity and yields

The MPC meeting through an unanimous vote (6-0) decided to keep all key policy rates unchanged. With a view to reviving growth and sustaining it on a durable basis, the MPC decided to retain an accommodative policy stance while keeping liquidity in surplus mode.

Apr-2021 A dovish and pro growth policy, reiterating support to liquidity and yields

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting outcome was along expected lines with RBI leaving all key policy rates unchanged. At the same time, RBI committed to support yields and liquidity as in the previous meetings using the entire array of tools at its disposal.

Feb-2021 Status quo on rates – Liquidity stance remains accommodative

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unanimously (6-0) decided to maintain all policy rates at status quo while also retaining the liquidity stance as “accommodative”. Further liquidity management and normalisation is now likely to be graded and gradual to prevent any market disruption or impair financial stability.

Dec-2020 Status quo on rates and continued dovish stance

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) at its meeting held today 4th December 2020, voted unanimously (6-0) to maintain status quo on key policy rates. The policy retained a dovish tone spelling continuity on all counts.

Apr-2020 Equity Outlook: Uncertainty is getting priced into current valuations

Over the past quarter, financial markets in India and around the world have witnessed heightened volatility and risk aversion, a consequence of the significant spread of Coronavirus and the resultant slowdown in global economic activity. Global equity markets have melted down at a dizzying rate, and implied volatility has surged to global financial crisis levels.

Mar-2020 MPC Outcome - RBI comes out with heavy artillery

To address the rising financial and credit market risks and to prevent any financial market disruption caused by the outbreak of the COVID epidemic, the MPC met earlier than scheduled (early April) and agreed to release a barrage of measures.

Feb-2020 RBI Policy: The Real Transmission

Today’s MPC meeting was all about the transmission of policy rates cuts as RBI announced the conduct of Long Term Repo Operations. The real action was in the “Statement on Developmental and Regulatory Policies.

Feb-2020 Union Budget FY 2020-21 - View from the Fixed Income Desk

The Government stuck to the fiscal glide path for FY 2020 by resorting to the deviation clause of 50 bps in the FRBM act. Fiscal deficit for FY 20 is thus estimated higher by 50 bps at 3.8%.

Feb-2020 Union Budget FY 2020-21 - View from the Equity Desk

The Union Budget has focused on three themes - Aspirational India, Economic development and Caring Society. Economic Survey has done good job of identifying what is best for Indian Economy and suggested policies that can foster wealth creation in India.

Dec-2019 RBI Policy: An Unexpected Twist

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) today kept the benchmark Policy rates on hold against the consensus and our expectation of a 25bps rate cut. The MPC decision was a unanimous one with all the members voting to hold rates.

Sep-2019 RBI Policy: View from the Fixed Income

In line with market expectations, RBI today cut the key repo rates by 25 bps, being the 5th time in a row. Together with today’s cut of 25 bps, the overall easing since February stands at 135 bp

Apr-2019 A Balanced Approach

The MPC today delivered a 25 bps rate cut while maintaining a Neutral Stance. MPC voted 4-2 (Ghate & Viral voted for no cut) in favour of the rate cut while the Neutral Stance was retained with a 5-1 vote.

March 2024 We find better relative value in the large cap category

The Nifty50 index recorded a gain of 1.6%, led by rally towards the end of the month. For FY24, the index was up 28.6%. NSE Mid Cap 100 index and NSE Small Cap 100 index saw respective correction of -0.5% and -4.4% compared to the respective increase of 60.1% and 68.9% during FY2

30th March 2024 Fixed Income Weekly Update

The last week of FY24 saw decent action in the Indian bond markets as record high SDL issuance at the beginning of the week pressurised the yields at the longer end of the curve but a lower than expected borrowing calendar for H1 of FY25 led to lower yields on the last day of the month.

23rd March 2024 Fixed Income Weekly Update

There was plenty of action in the global bond markets led by central bank policy actions in the week gone by though the Indian bond markets were impacted more by the dynamics of the financial year end and the much higher than scheduled state bond auctions.

8th March 2024 Fixed Income Weekly Update

Indian bond markets traded with a bullish undertone even in the face of continued strong economic data underscored by the favourable demand supply dynamics in the bond markets.

February - 2024 Valuation excesses are especially stark in the Mid and Small Cap buckets

Market remained rangebound in February with the Nifty50 index generating 1.2% return and the Nifty Mid Cap 100 index and Nifty Small Cap 100 index correcting by 0.5% and 0.3% respectively for the month.

27th February 2024 Fixed Income Weekly Update

Indian bond markets continued to trade in a range and were stable during the week in the absence of any major triggers. The benchmark 10yr bond ended the week at 7.06, down 2 bps over the week. The rest of the curve was also down by 2 bps over the week.

24th February 2024 Fixed Income Weekly Update

Indian Bond markets were pretty stable and traded in a range with a bullish undertone during the week in the absence of any major triggers. The benchmark 10yr bond ended the week at 7.08 down by 2 bps on the week.

17th February 2024 Fixed Income Weekly Update

The week gone by was all about the reinforcing of the strong underlying macroeconomic fundamentals of the Indian economy as Inflation came in line with expectations and Industrial production was stronger than expected.

03 February 2024 Fixed Income Weekly Update

The interim Budget gave Indian bonds a fresh lease of life as the fiscal deficit and the gross borrowing numbers came in lower than market expectations.

January 2024 Cautious on the near-term return potential for markets

After hitting a new all-time high during the month, Nifty50 closed flat in January. The Mid Cap and the Small Cap indices continued their upward trajectory with the Nifty Mid Cap 100 Index and the NSE Small Cap 100 Index closing the month with gains of 5.2% and 5.8% respectively.

23rd January 2024 Fixed Income Weekly Update

Bond yields turned a bit volatile during the week though the 10yr bond yield ended flat from last week’s closing at 7.18%. Yields came down at the start of the week on the back of good inflation numbers but the rally fettered out on back of rise in US and global bond yields as markets recalibrated their expectations about rate cuts.

20 January 2024 Fixed Income Weekly Update

13 January 2024 Fixed Income Weekly Update

Bond yields remained largely stable in a week dominated by vagaries of nature with respect to the monsoons in India and heat wave across Europe.

December - 2023 We see lesser earnings volatility for domestic consumption-oriented sectors

Nifty50 closed with strong gains of 7.9% in December 2023, and ended CY2023 at near all-time high, on the back of retail participation, strong FPI/DII flows, domestic macroeconomic stability and positive earnings momentum. The NSE Mid Cap 100 Index and NSE Small Cap 100 Index were up around 7.6% and 6.9% respectively.

30 December 2023 Fixed Income Weekly Update

Bond yields were stable in the last week of the year with the 10yr benchmark bond yield ending the week and the year at 7.18%. Money market yields came off towards the end of the week though the overnight lending rates stayed elevated close to the MSF rate.

23 December 2023 Fixed Income Weekly Update

Bond yields stabilised this week after the US Fed induced rally of last week. In the absence of any major triggers, there was profit booking and bond yields were marginally higher in the week.

16 December 2023 Fixed Income Weekly Update

Indian Bond yields followed the action in the global bond markets as yields fell sharply after the US Fed meeting. The dovish stance of the Fed meeting has effectively ended the rate tightening cycle and can thus be considered as the long awaited PIVOT in the global monetary tightening cycle.

November - 2023 Strong (high growth + high quality) Mid Caps & Small Caps present opportunity for long term investors

In October 2023, markets went into consolidation mode with the NIFTY 50 index declining 2.8% for the month. The month saw broad based weakness in global markets led by Israel-Hamas conflict, rising US bond yields, and concerns about potential rate hikes dampening the global investor sentiment.

02 December 2023 Fixed Income Weekly Update

Indian Bond Yields were stable during the week after an uptick in yields last week. Markets were keenly awaiting the Q2 FY24 GDP data for further guidance and also given the divergence between the estimates of RBI and the analyst community in respect of the GDP forecast for FY24.

25 November 2023 Fixed Income Weekly Update

Indian Bond Yields inched higher during the week on profit booking after the sharp rally since the start of this month. The benchmark 10yr Bond yield had fallen by 15 bps from the start of the month till the end of last week.

18 November 2023 Fixed Income Weekly Update

Bond Yields came down with a flattening bias this week as crude oil and global bond yields came off sharply in response to lower inflation. The benchmark 10yr bond yield came down by 10bps ending the week at 7.21%.

11 November 2023 Fixed Income Weekly Update

Bond Yields were steady this week as crude oil sold off towards a more than three month low even as the middle east conflict raged on. Stable global bond yields and lower crude helped Indian Bond yields as the benchmark 10yr bond ended the week at 7.30% almost flat from last week’s closing of 7.31% but the real surprise of the week was INR.

October - 2023 Broad based weakness

04 November 2023 Fixed Income Weekly Update

Indian Bond yields retraced lower from their last week highs tracking global bond yields which trended lower as the US Fed paused while indicating that they may be at the end of the rate hiking cycle given the tightening in financial conditions due to the rise in long term bond yields.

28 October 2023 Fixed Income Weekly Update

Indian Bond yields were stable during the week amidst continuing uncertainty on the geopolitical front. The benchmark 10yr bond yield ended the week at 7.36% flat from last weeks close.

21 October 2023 Fixed Income Weekly Update

Indian Bond yields stayed elevated during the week as crude and global bond yields continued their uptrend. The benchmark 10yr bond yield ended the week at 7.36% up 4 bps from last week.

14 October 2023 Fixed Income Weekly Update

The bond sell off induced by the hawkish than expected RBI policy on 6th abated a bit as inflation came in lower than expected. CPI inflation came in 5.02% below consensus expectations of 5.40% led by broad based deceleration of food prices.

September - 2023 Optimistic on the long-term outlook for Indian equities

Despite global challenges, Indian equities resumed their upward trajectory in September with the Nifty50 Index rising 2% for the month. Based on our internal analysis, ‘lower growth + lower quality’ companies have significantly outperformed their ‘higher growth + higher quality’ counterparts during the month, and on a year-to-date basis as well.

23 September 2023 Fixed Income Weekly Update

Finally Indian government bonds got included in the JP Morgan Bond Index. Indian markets had started anticipating such a move since the start of the month and speculation had grown in the last couple of weeks after news reports started circulating regarding the inclusion.

16 September 2023 Fixed Income Weekly Update

Indian Bond yields were volatile during the week. Bonds started the week on a weak footing as rising crude oil price and global bond yields dented sentiments and the benchmark 10yr Bond yield touched a high of 7.25% on the first day of the week before value buying crept in.

August - 2023 Macro takes front seat

August 2023 saw deceleration in progress of monsoon, higher than expected inflation print and unexpected increase in CRR requirement for banks by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) resulting in the Nifty50 index correcting by 2.5%. The rally in small and midcap indices continued due to strong buying by domestic institutional investors.

28th August 2023 Fixed Income Weekly Update

Indian Bond yields remained largely stable during the week though the curve flattened further with short end (2-3yrs) yields rising by 3-5 bps while the longer end bond yields stable or lower by couple of basis points.

21 August 2023 Fixed Income Weekly Update

Indian Bond yields remained stable during the week after the benchmark 10yr bond yield touched 7.25% last week. There was decent buying interest from investors as the benchmark 10yr bond yield touched 7.25% as value buying emerged.

July - 2023 A mixed bag of corporate results

Indian equities continued their upward trajectory, led by strong FII buying and risk-on sentiment in the market in July with the Nifty50 Index gaining 2.9% for the month.

31 July 2023 Fixed Income Weekly Update

Bond yields continued their northward journey this week as global yields surged led by the bear steepening in the US curve which led the 10yr US yield towards 4.20% as higher supply of treasuries spooked the long end of the US bond curve.

24 July 2023 Fixed Income Weekly Update

Bond yields edged higher in the last two days after being stable through the week. The erratic distribution of monsoons and global geopolitical developments sustain the concerns on food Inflation.

17 July 2023 Fixed Income Weekly Update

Bond yields remained largely stable in a week dominated by vagaries of nature with respect to the monsoons in India and heat wave across Europe.

June - 2023 Market hits new highs

The Nifty rallied 3.5% in June and reached all-time high on the back of positive US economic data, receding inflationary pressures, subdued crude oil prices and some uptick in the progress in monsoon

May - 2023 Positive momentum continues

Amid global volatility, Indian markets delivered a healthy 2.6% return in May 2023. The mid caps and small caps outperformed the large caps with their respective indices being up by 6.2% and 5.1% respectively.

April - 2023 Well-placed despite global challenges

April 2023 saw the NIFTY moving up sharply (+ 4.1%), given easing of macro concerns and better flows. Mid Cap and Small Cap indices outperformed the Nifty as they gained 5.9% and 7.5% respectively, during the month.

March - 2023 Relative underperformance makes risk reward better

For the month of March 2023, as well for the financial year, NIFTY was largely flat. Midcaps too were flat for the month, though slightly up (1.2%) for the financial year, while small caps were down 1.8% for the month, and down 13.8% for the year.

Feb - 2023 Concerns remain, so do the opportunities

The Nifty Index declined 2% in February - its third consecutive month of decline. Mid-cap and small-cap indices were down nearly 2% and 4%, respectively. Sector-wise, power, metals and oil & gas were the laggards.

Jan - 2023 Prudence over populism

Indian markets declined by 2.4% (NIFTY) in the month of January and underperformed most of its developed as well as developing market peers.

Dec - 2022 Consolidating yet outperforming

In tandem with most global markets, Indian markets too fell this month, with the NIFTY50 down 3.6%. In the broader markets, miand small caps, though down, outperformed the large caps, with their respective indices being down 1.7% and 2.5%, respectively.

Nov - 2022 Macro Stability and Earnings growth should keep India in good stead

The Indian markets had another strong month with the NIFTY gaining 4.1% during the month. In the broader markets, large caps outperformed the mid and small caps with their respective indices being up 1.9% and 3% respectively.

Oct - 2022 Markets are supported by government focus on macro stability; corporate earnings are holding

The Indian markets had a strong month and closed in the green (Nifty50 +5.4%) outperforming most regional markets such as Malaysia, Indonesia, Taiwan, Shanghai and Hong Kong.

Sept - 2022 Relatively well placed

In line with global markets, Indian markets corrected in September (Nifty was down 3.7%), though it managed to outperform most of the developed as well as emerging market peers. Global events weighed heavy with the Fed raising rates by 75bps and remaining hawkish.

Aug - 2022 Stable macro and resilient earnings growth support premium valuations

Indian markets continued their momentum in the month of August, ending up 2.4%. This compares favorably to some of the developed markets which were down for the month, on the back of a hawkish stance of the Fed.

July - 2022 Resilient earnings and flows continue to support markets

July 2022 was the best month in this calendar year, with the Nifty gaining ~8.7% in the month. Midcaps outperformed the Nifty,gaining 12% during the month, while the Smallcap Index was broadly in line with the Nifty.

June - 2022 Markets are factoring in the global slowdown, but India is better placed

Along with most global markets, Indian markets too were down 4.8% in June 2022 on the back of concerns over a global recession and tightening stance from central banks.

May - 2022 Near-term concerns priced into valuations

Indian markets were down 3% in May 2022 on the back of worries over a global economic slowdown amid aggressive policy tightening, lockdowns in China, and ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict.

April - 2022 Earnings stable despite inflationary pressures

In line with global markets, Indian markets too were weak in April 2022 (NIFTY down 2.1%) on the back of continued tightening in developed markets and geopolitical tensions.

Mar - 2022 Positive outlook amidst transitory tensions

Despite the geopolitical tensions, higher crude prices and Fed rate hike, Indian markets were up 4%, ending the financial year with a 19% gain, probably on the back of the ruling party at the Centre winning 4 of the 5 state elections.

Feb - 2022 Geopolitical concerns cause upheavals

In tandem with global markets, Indian markets also fell (NIFTY down 3.1% during the month) on the back of geopolitical tensions soaring amidst Russia-Ukraine crisis.

Jan - 2022 Focus on growth consistency augur well

The start of the calendar year was flattish, with the NIFTY returning -0.1% during the month. The buoyancy seen in the first half of the month retracted later on concerns of rate hikes by the US Fed, rising bond yields, and higher crude prices.

Dec - 2021 Tempering expectations

Indian markets ended the last month of the calendar year with a 2.2% return. The Midcap Index rose by 2.7% and Smallcap Index by 5.9%. The positive returns on the indices mask the intra-month volatility and continued FII selling.

Nov -2021 Proceeding with Cautious Optimism: Unlocked economy and inflation presents a mixed outlook

Indian stocks recorded their first monthly loss since April this year as fears over the Omicron variant added to the concerns about high valuations and potential tightening of liquidity conditions. The benchmark Nifty50 Index fell 3.9% in November–the lowest since March 2020–as a poor equity-market debut for India’s largest-ever initial public offering also soured sentiment.

Oct -2021 Cautiously Optimistic View - Equity Market View

The key equity benchmarks hit all-time high levels in the middle of the month. However, the gains were not sustained and the indices ended almost flat amid concerns over steep valuations, rising commodity prices, inflationary pressure and liquidity normalization signals by the central bank.

Sep -2021 Indian equity market outperforms peers - Equity Market View

The Indian equity market continued its positive run, with the NIFTY rising 2.8% in Sep 2021, outperforming both its developed and developing peers. A combination of lower covid case counts and healthy pace of vaccinations, has ensured that the market remained in a positive trajectory even as concerns emanating from China (a result of the debt of a large realty company) kept some of the other markets jittery.

Aug -2021 Index, inflation trend strong - Equity Market View

The benchmark indices ended at record high levels, with the Nifty Index gaining 8.7% - the best month in CY21, led by index heavyweights. However, the broader markets underperformed, with the Nifty Midcap 100 Index gaining 2.3% and Nifty Small Cap 100 Index declining 2.3%. Among sector indices, Power, IT and Oil & Gas gained more than 10%. Metals and Realty indices ended with a marginal loss of 1.9% and 2.9%.

Jul- 2021 Mid and small caps see rally – Equity Market View

As in June 2021, while broader markets were largely range-bound in July 2021 and closed marginally higher (NIFTY +0.4%) they saw a strong surge in the midcaps (+3.2%) and small caps (+8.2%) segments. Realty, Metals and Cement sectors were the outperformers while Auto, Utilities and Energy underperformed.

June -2021 Markets get the growth boost - Equity Market View

While the broader markets were largely rangebound in June 2021 and closed marginally higher (NIFTY +0.9%), there was a strong surge in the midcaps/smallcaps space with the indices up ~5% in the month. The BSE SmallCap 250 Index has given positive returns for 15 straight months – something never before witnessed by the market (the previous record was 8 months).

May -2021 Growth, results better than expected - Equity Market View

Indian markets continued their upward journey with the Nifty Index up 6.7% in the month on the back of a decline in new Covid infections (down 60% from its peak) and the possibility of return to normalcy gathering pace. The broader markets outperformed with BSE Midcap 150 Index up 6.6% and BSE Small Cap 250 Index up 9.1%.

Apr -2021 Vaccines, earnings offer dose of relief - Equity Market View

Renewed restrictions across India, due to a surge in daily Covid-19 cases to 400k+, led to the Nifty (-0.4%) underperforming the global markets during April. FIIs turned net sellers for the first time in 2021 as the healthcare infrastructure of the country appeared to be overwhelmed with news reports of shortage of hospital beds, oxygen and medical supplies.

Mar -2021 Constructive outlook despite an unrepeatable performance in FY21 - Equity Market View

Amidst rising volatility, Nifty closed 1.2% higher in March 2021. It came off its highs as possibility of a second wave of coronavirus and rising bond yields played spoilsport. However, for the fiscal year, Nifty was up 71% which was its best performance in last ten years.

Feb -2021 Market shows promise of recovery after the unlock phase - Equity Market View

Amid volatile sessions, Nifty-50 Index gained 6.7% in February. The month started on a positive note with the announcement of the Union Budget. Key benchmark indices gained 5% on February 1 as there was no change in tax rates, the focus was on growth and increase in spending.

Jan -2021 Budget boost to stock market - Equity Market View

After a strong December, Indian markets corrected sharply in the second half of January, leading to a 2.5% decline for the month. This was primarily due to weak global markets, risk-on sentiment, and FIIs selling. While Auto and Telecom sectors were outperformers, Pharma and Metals were the laggards..

Jan-2021 Expectations from the Budget 2021

India faced one of its weakest years on record, impacted severely by the pandemic. Economic activity slumped through the initial months of the pandemic until June before gradually resuming post September.

Dec - 2020 Ending the year on a high view

The year 2020 ended at close to all-time highs for markets, with Nifty gaining 7.8% in Dec 2020 helped by continued inflows from FIIs on the back of the risk-on sentiment. Interestingly, the month saw the Nifty Index closing in the red only on 3 days – the lowest number since its launch..

Nov - 2020 A Period of Positivity - Equity Market View

The Nifty50 Index rose sharply in November (+11.4%), touching new lifetime highs and outperforming regional markets such as Indonesia, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Malaysia, and Philippines. A gradual improvement in economic activity, driven by pent-up and festive demand,

Oct - 2020 Near term volatility? - Equity Market View

After a slight dip in the month of September, Indian markets continued their positive run in Oct 2020 and was up 3.5% (NIFTY) on the back of good inflows from FIIs. Globally, markets were a bit choppy as US elections related uncertainty and the re-emergence of lockdowns in Europe weighed on markets..

Sep - 2020 Unlocking the Economy - Equity Market View

After 3 straight months of gains, Indian markets faced bouts of volatility in September, with Nifty declining by 1.2%. Broader markets fared better, with Nifty Midcap Index gaining 1.8% and Nifty Small Cap Index gaining 4.2%. IT and Healthcare were the top performing sectors, while Financials and Telecom dragged the markets down..

Aug - 2020 Strong market despite mixed numbers - Equity Market View

Indian Equities rose for the third straight month in August (Nifty +2.8%), with the US markets also touching new highs during the month. Broader markets outperformed, with the BSE Mid-cap gaining 6.6% and BSE Small-cap gaining 10.1%. Among sector indices, the BSE Metals index gained 13%, followed by Realty (+11.6%) and Banks (+9.6%)..

July - 2020 Positive news cheers markets - Equity Market View

July was another strong month for Indian equity markets (in line with EM peers) with the Nifty 50 Index rallying 7.5% during the month. The key positives are; better than expected Q1FY21 corporate results (on low expectations base), progress in numerous Covid-19 vaccine trials & treatment, and signs of earlier-than-expected normalization in economic activity.

June 2020 Hopes of recovery but uncertainty remains- Equity Market View

Equity markets were strong in June, with the benchmark Nifty Index moving up by 7.5%. The broader market outperformed with Nifty Midcap100 Index rallying 10.8% and Nifty SmallCap100 Index rallying 15.3% (the best month for small caps in 6 years). All sectors were up vs May with Realty, Financials and Auto being the outperformers.

May 2020 Weak economy but strong markets- Equity Market View

After registering a strong rally in April (up 15% - the highest move in a month in over ten years), May month witnessed a correction of 2.8%. Disappointed with the fiscal stimulus, the Nifty 50 corrected in the first half but recovered in the second half on improving global sentiment, as economies across the world emerged out of lockdowns.

Apr -2020 Waiting for the economic activity to return- Equity Market View

The nation was under lockdown throughout the month of April. The Nifty-50 Index recovered 14.7% in the month (best calendar month since May’09). The BSE mid-cap and BSE small-cap Indices posted 14% and 16% gains respectively. Among sectoral indices, BSE healthcare gained 26%, followed by auto (+24%) and oil & gas (+20%) indices.

Mar -2020 Fiscal sops and stimulus to push long end yields - Fixed Income Market View

CPI for March 2020 printed at 6.58% which was higher than RBI's target of 4% but lower than market expectation of 6.72%. Core inflation (helped by petering off of mobile tariffs) also declined from 4.16% to 4.08%.

Mar-2020 Market View and portfolio positioning

The equity markets globally and in India have seen a massive correction due to the uncertainties associated with the global macro linked primarily to coronavirus and also the volatility associated with crude oil. The issue with coronavirus is the uncertainty with regards to the time it will linger, fatality rates and the fear of the unknown

Mar-2020 Impact of recent market volatility on Arbitrage Funds

The recent market movements have been unprecedented and this has led to several questions being raised in the minds of the investor as well as the distribution community. Please check some key points on the impact of recent market volatility on Arbitrage Funds.

Feb -2020 Fear of virus bigger than the virus itself ?- Equity Market View

In February 2020, all the major global indices closed in the red. With high chances of WHO declaring the coronavirus disease as a pandemic, global markets saw a sharp drawdown (US Markets saw the worst weekly fall since the GFC).

Jan-2020 Earnings are seeing buoyancy led by lower tax rates and low base of FY 2019- Equity Market View

The Union Budget was presented on 1st February and while there were no stark negatives, a lack of stimulus and policy measures disappointed in the backdrop of heightened expectations.

Dec-2019 RBI steps in to cool-off yields - Fixed Income Market View

There is a dichotomy that is prevalent in the markets with macros being weak (high fiscal deficit, overall slowdown, inflation inching up, low credit growth) while markets are scaling new highs on the back of continued flows, risk-on sentiment getting stronger and in general loose fiscal policies.

Nov-2019 A modest recovery in growth is expected in second half of FY20 - Equity Market View

Indian markets rallied in the second half of the month driven by both global risk-on and some positive reforms announced locally. Market sentiment was buoyed following the

Oct-2019 Short-end rates fall on rate cut, long-end unchanged on fiscal worries - Fixed Income Market View

Result Season of Q2FY20 is seeing decent earnings growth as many companies are shifting to the reduced tax rates as announced by the government.

Sep-2019 Definite shift in government approach towards corporate India - Equity Market View

Government has been talking about accelerating economic growth for quite some time and articulated its aspiration to be $5tn economy by 2024 but something missing to make this reality

Aug-2019 Yields harden despite rate cut as fiscal concerns emerge - Fixed Income Market View

Pessimism is all around as major newspaper headlines are all about deteriorating economy, job losses etc. Though overall scenario looks challenging in the near term..

Jul-2019 Volatility in the near term cannot be ruled out - Equity Market View

Budget presented in July post the completion of the general elections, stuck to the path of fiscal prudence and lowered fiscal deficit target to 3.3% of GDP.

Jun-2019 Weak growth, improving liquidity and rate cut push down yields - Fixed Income Market View

Come July, the full year budget, progress of monsoon, trade war developments and RBI policy meet would be key monitorables. Economic growth and earnings recovery are key

May-2019 Economy is currently in a transitionary mode - Equity Market View

Overall FY 19 NIFTY earnings growth stood close to 10%. Earnings shortfall in financials and Auto sectors are partially offset by currency led gains in IT sector.

Apr-2019 Election event risk, tight liquidity keep yields elevated - Fixed Income Market View

Quarter 4 earnings have been mixed so far, though result season still has still one month to go. On 23rd May, the results of the ongoing general elections would be announced and provide short term direction to markets.

February - 2024 An Unconventional Strategy For Retirement In Today’s Time.

Out of many interesting observations from the PGIM India Mutual Fund’s Retirement Readiness Survey 2023, two observation significantly struck my attention.

January - 2024 Peaceful Retirement continued

In an era defined by hustle & bustle, the pursuit of a peaceful retirement is one of the most important goals. The journey to that goal is as much a state of mind as it is a financial milestone.

December - 2023 Can you predict the top performing asset class of 2024?

The year 2023 was momentous for the mutual fund industry as it crossed 50 lakh crore assets under management mark in December 2023, which is a proud moment for all the industry stakeholders.

November - 2023 Blue Zones & Peaceful Retirement

Blue Zones are geographical areas where people live remarkably long and healthy lives. These regions, include Okinawa-Japan, Sardinia-Italy, Nicoya Peninsula-Costa Rica, Icaria-Greece, and Loma Linda-California, USA, have an average lifespan exceeding 90 years.

October - 2023 Law of Inertia

As we all know, Sir Isaac Newton gave us the famous three laws of motion, among which the first law in a simplified manner, states that an object at rest will remain at rest unless an outside force acts on it, and vice versa.

September - 2023 Personal Benchmarking, To Reach Desired Goals

So far, the current fiscal has seen lot of interesting trends in India. In contrast to the rest of the world, the Indian market has been a beneficiary of liquidity, both from domestic and foreign investors, between April to September 2023.

August - 2023 When in Doubt, Diversify

Ever since the popular research paper on asset allocation was published in 1986 (titled Determinants of Portfolio Performance, by Brinson, Hood and Beebower) the topic has led to intense debate, especially in the investment industry.

July - 2023 Financial Chakravyuhas and the importance of exit strategies

Let us understand why it is so important to look at an exit strategy and portfolio rebalancing in the context of financial planning for a particular goal.

June - 2023 All-Time Highs and Psychological barriers to investing

The headline indices like the Nifty 50 and Sensex have hit fresh all-time highs (ATH), and that is the talk of the town. However, at PGIM India, we have always advised our investors to just look at these as an indicator of broad trends.

May - 2023 Is my Active equity fund really active?

Amidst the ongoing debate in India over active v/s passive management, this metric can be quite useful in evaluating a fund, by the distributor and investor alike.

April - 2023 Learnings from a pivotal year

The last year was a pivotal year in many ways. In any year, there is the unpredictability of the markets to deal with, but last year the confluence of various macro uncertainties and geopolitics led to heightened volatility.

March - 2023 Reduce retirement corpus anxiety

Most of us have a number of financial goals. If you ask someone what their goals are, the typical answers you get would be like buying a home, buying a car, children’s education, or going on a holiday.

Feb -2023 A Win-Win Solution

Although retail participation in mutual funds, has grown by leaps and bounds in the last two decades, it is predominantly equity schemes that investors have favoured.

Jan -2023 Reversion to the Mean - A powerful concept for ordinary investors

Reversion to the mean is the idea that over time, extreme events or outliers tend to move towards the average.

Dec -2022 Reduce your Financial Anxiety

As the famous quote above mentions, the cost of anxiety is too expensive. Many would agree with this, but perhaps few have an idea on how to go about reducing their financial anxiety.

Nov -2022 Not all early growth sectors are available in India

Global investments can not only help an investor benefit from diversification, but also allow participation in investment opportunities unavailable in domestic markets.

Oct -2022 Retirement wisdom from the young

Diversification and asset allocation are the fundamental principles of personal finance, that Indian investors and advisors are well aware of. But let me talk about another important aspect of planning your financial life, taking a cue from the young.

Sep -2022 The Sequence of Returns

While investing in a market-linked product like mutual funds, one has to first understand the risks involved on an ongoing basis and then try and also understand that risk cannot be destroyed or eliminated altogether but only mitigated.

August -2022 Default options can help build good financial habits

As one transitions from teenager to adult, and starts earning for the first time, the thing that defines this change the most and prepares one for the ‘responsibility’ phase of the life to follow, is the need to manage finances on one’s own.

July -2022 A sequence to guide your saving and investment journey

Mr. Inv (investor) to Mrs. FA (Financial Advisor): Hi. I have some surplus money right now and I was planning to perhaps invest in this new fund idea.

June -2022 The other kind of Alpha

Being in the fund management industry for many years and overseeing active mandates across portfolios, I have always seen a constant discussion on manager’s alpha, from both advisors and investors.

May -2022 The Three Types of Risks

April -2022 In case of Emergency, contact xxxxx

Emergencies are a fact of life. However, the most common reaction when we see someone else in an emergency situation is to reassure ourselves that “this can’t happen to me” and walk away. Many emergencies also end up being a financial crunch for someone who has not planned for it.

Mar -2022 The Lilly pond riddle

Valuable insight on the process equity-oriented scheme evaluation through an interesting thought experiment and riddle.

Feb -2022 Home bias and the risk of not being diversified

The world witnessed an unwelcome geopolitical event this month that has escalated quickly and led to increased market volatility.

Jan -2022 Mind the Gap

Each individual and household is unique and so are their needs and situation in life. Hence when it comes to financial planning, their requirements are also unique.

Dec -2021 Power of good financial habits

The quote from F.M. Alexander has struck a chord with me for various reasons. Among other things, I think, the power of good habits in the world of finance is often ignored or not given its due importance as a force which can help in long-term wealth creation. Read More

Nov -2021 Raison d'être of Equity investing

As the world wakes up to challenges that a new variant of the coronavirus poses, the global equity markets has seen some amount of pullback and volatility has risen in the past few weeks. Let me begin this edition of the letter by quoting Bill Gates : “We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and under estimate the change that will occur in the next ten”.

Oct -2021 A crisis brings opportunities too

As we start the new year, the trends that are keeping us excited here at PGIM India is the Real Estate story and the fact that we have been able to successfully bring a product proposition for Indian investors which is unique and can provide you access to a different asset class altogether within the mutual fund space.

Sep -2021 Accumulative advantage of the 1% rule.

Economic activity is steadily improving with the opening of most sectors. The pace of hiring especially in the IT space is quite robust. Real Estate is witnessing a revival of sorts. Agri commodity prices have moved up with the possibility of bringing more income to the hinterlands.

Aug -2021 Return is only one side of the coin. Risk is the other side. Whether it be your health or investments.

As life returns to normalcy, our collective behavior undoubtedly will be the key in defining whether the pandemic will rear its ugly head again or whether it will be relegated to history. So, I hope that all of us continue practicing the health protocols adopted during the COVID.

Jul- 2021 Opportunities for diversification amidst a crisis

It is our continuous endeavour to offer diversity in products and solutions. In that regard, we received an overwhelming response to our recently launched PGIM India Small Cap Equity Fund NFO

June -2021 The silver lining in Small Caps

The second wave has substantially subsided. Hopefully, we all will stay vigilant to prevent the occurrence of the third wave. Beyond the financial impact, it is a huge human tragedy. The entire episode has no doubt impacted the social psyche to various degrees depending on the intensity of the experience. In my previous communication, I had written about portfolio “co-morbidities”.

May -2021 To Crypto or not to Crypto

In my previous communication, I had written about portfolio “co-morbidities”. The idea was to highlight that diversification is the key to have a successful financial journey. The essence of diversification is creating a portfolio of uncorrelated assets.

Apr -2021 Portfolio Co-morbidities

The world is currently torn between optimism about a massive vaccination drive that is underway and pessimism due to the onset of the second wave of Covid in various parts. The second wave in India has created an environment of gloom.

Mar -2021 Coming out stronger from a second wave

We have just completed a financial year that is difficult to describe in a single word. “Unprecedented“ possibly does not capture the wide range of emotions, like anxiety, depression, sense of relief etc that we went through as a society.

Feb -2021 Financial Housekeeping: A need of the hour for many

The much awaited vaccines for COVID-19 are finally here. Over the course of the next few months, hopefully a large portion of the population will be vaccinated and we will be able to resume our normal lives. The past twelve months have arguably been the most challenging for businesses to ensure uninterrupted operations

Jan -2021 Embrace the new

2021 has begun on a positive note. Approval for use of multiple vaccines, faster than anticipated recovery on the economic front, rising corporate profitability, rising stock markets and a pro-growth budget are helping relegate the dark memories of the Covid 19 pandemic into the background..

Dec-2020 Health is True Wealth

After an extremely challenging year we are finally seeing a ray of hope on the vaccine front. Challenges of distribution logistics and even efficacy and acceptability will remain but clarity and confidence on this issue has been evolving. Few quarters down the line this phase will be relegated into the background..

Nov -2020 A Case for Investing in Emerging Market Equities

We are now in the last month of what can be termed as an unprecedented year. At the beginning of the year no one would have envisaged the way the year would pan out. We experienced a major human crisis that ultimately impacted economies around the globe.

Oct -2020 Watch out for over-simplifying investment decisions

Wikipedia defines bias as a disproportionate weight in favor of or against an idea or thing. It also goes on to mention that biases can be innate or learned. In my experience this is true. Bias is at play in all decision making including investment decisions..

Sep -2020 A bias to watch out for while taking Investment decisions

I have been writing to you about various biases that get inbuilt in the human mind. These biases impact the quality of decision making and hence the outcomes that define the quality of life. Even investment decisions are not insulated from biases.

Aug -2020 An Investment behaviour bias to guard against during difficult times

In the April to June quarter as the markets witnessed sharp correction, there were quite a few headlines suggesting that net flows intoequity mutual funds had dipped, the net monthly SIP input value at industry level dropped by more than 10-12% and so on.

July -2020 In Investing, You are likely to be your own worst enemy

Benjamin Graham, considered by many professional investors as the father of modern day value investing once said that “The investor’s chief problem–and his worst enemy–is likely to be himself. In the end, how your investments behave is much less important than how you behave.”

June 2020 Protocols and checklists help in saving lives and in managing money too

The first line of defense against Covid 19 has turned out to be the simple practice of washing hands. What seems like a simple practice is actually the most important protocol in the world of healthcare. Protocol is a set of rules and guidelines related to a particular field.

May 2020 Post the Lockdown

I hope that you are your family members are safe and continue to remain safe in the current pandemic. In my earlier communications I have consciously stayed away from commenting on the economy and other macro factors as under normal circumstances, markets go through cycles and what helps investors are the decisions around asset allocations, financial plans and discipline to stick to them through the cycles.

Apr -2020 Beyond The Headlines

Hope you and your family are safe and are taking every precaution to remain safe and healthy. This pandemic is undoubtedly an unprecedented one for the current global population. The spread of Covid 19 and its likely impact on the global economy is a topic that gets discussed every day.

Mar -2020 Don't throw the baby out with the bath water!

That proverb best explains what to guard against as investors. Investing has always been and will always remain first about buying into good businesses. Dire headlines on index levels distract from this.

Feb -2020 Diversification, the simple solution to contain portfolio volatility

We are just two months into 2020 but quite a few equity market participants are feeling like it has been a long time owing to the volatility we have seen in the recent past . A month back if you looked at any market report and equity outlook for 2020, none of them could have possibly mentioned anything about Corona virus;

Jan–2020 Is your portfolio future ready?

We are living in an increasingly globalised world. As an Indian consumer we have benefitted from access to a variety of high quality goods and services that are produced outside India but not produced domestically. Be it mobile phones or luxury cars?

Dec-2019 To Buy or Not to Buy?

Quite a few things have changed in the last decade - the rise of an on demand economy, e-commerce, move towards a cash less society, advances in health tech, energy efficiency and so on.

Nov-2019 What is your Plan B?

I have been writing to you about the thumb rules related to the world of investments. The idea behind sharing these simple thumb rules is to simplify the various aspects of financial planning of you.

Oct-2019 How do I plan my household budget?

The equity market in India have given a very valuable investment lesson this year. For the large part of the year post elections the markets were driven by the negative data points related to the economy, local and global.

Sep-2019 How do I arrive at my Retirement corpus number?

In my last letter, I had mentioned about thumb rules that are useful for getting a sense of various aspects of a financial plan. I hope to cover a few more of these thumb rules related to planning your finances.

Aug-2019 Thumb Rules that help you make asset allocation decisions simple

Till the recent past, all of us had a family doctor who had this amazing ability to predict how long a fever would last, that too without conducting any medical test.

Jul-2019 We are now PGIM India

PGIM, The Global Investment Management Business of US-based Prudential Financial, Inc. (PFI), completes Acquisition of DHFL Pramerica Asset Managers.

Jun-2019 Return per unit of volatility

Mutual Funds are subject to market risk…This disclaimer is repeated in all forms of communication by the Industry.

May-2019 Investments for Tax Savings, Sooner the Better

This financial year start with the overhang of general elections in the month of May. Along with uncertainity sorrounding the outcome of elections

Apr-2019 Keeping the faith in SIP Investments

The trend of financialization of assets has picked up over the last few years thanks to slowdown in real estate and lackluster movement in gold prices.

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