1st November 2024
Fixed Income Weekly Update
Indian bonds remained under pressure on surging bond yields in US and other DM countries. The benchmark 10yr bond yield ended the week and the month at 6.85%, unchanged from last week’s closing as volumes remained thin in a holiday curtailed week.
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19th October 2024
Fixed Income Weekly Update
Bonds were steady amidst a fluid geopolitical situation in the Middle East as traders looked to book profits. The benchmark 10yr Bond yield ended the week at 6.79%, unchanged from last week’s closing even as brent crude came down by almost 7% during the week.
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5th October 2024
Fixed Income Weekly Update
Bonds had a volatile week as a deteriorating geopolitical situation and retracement of US rate cut expectations led to risk aversion and profit booking as yields went up across the curve. The benchmark 10yr bond yield ended the week at 6.83%, up 7bps over the week.
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21st September 2024
Fixed Income Weekly Update
Bonds continued to be well supported with the start of the US rate cutting cycle and market sentiments remained upbeat. The US rate cutting cycle started with the Fed cutting rates by 50 bps.
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14th September 2024
Fixed Income Weekly Update
The bond rally continued unabated in the first half of September as Indian bond markets rallied on the back of the optimism in the global bond markets fuelled with expectations of the start of the rate cutting cycle in US even as ECB did another rate cut.
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August 2024
Credible signs of performance shift from low growth/quality names to high growth and high-quality firms
Indian markets fell sharply at the beginning of the month after a weaker-than-expected US employment data, a sell-off in Japan led by reversal of Bank of Japan’s monetary policy stance and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
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31st August 2024
Fixed Income Weekly Update
Indian bond markets remained stable and rangebound in the absence of any major triggers even as the new Unified Pension Scheme (UPS) was announced over last weekend which can have a potential negative impact on both the central and the state’s fiscal deficit.
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24th August 2024
Fixed Income Weekly Update
Indian bond markets remained stable with a positive bias. The positivity was underlined by lower headline CPI Inflation which came in at 3.54%. This inflation print was aided by base effect which offset the higher momentum in food prices and higher telecom tariff.
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17th August 2024
Fixed Income Weekly Update
Indian bond markets remained stable with a positive bias. The positivity was underlined by lower headline CPI Inflation which came in at 3.54%. This inflation print was aided by base effect which offset the higher momentum in food prices and higher telecom tariff.
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3rd August 2024
Fixed Income Weekly Update
The positive undertone of the Indian bond markets continued as yields drifted lower with a steepening bias. The longer end of the curve has underperformed and the yield curve bull steepened with the shorter segment of the curve (3-5yr) outperforming in the month of June 2024.
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20th July 2024
Fixed Income Weekly Update
Bond markets remained stable and yields were lower by 2-4 bps across the curve during the week in the run up to the Budget next week. The benchmark 10yr bond yield ended the week at 6.96%, down 3 bps over the week.
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13th July 2024
Fixed Income Weekly Update
Bond markets remained stable during the week on lack of any major triggers. The 2-5yr segment of the curve outperformed the rest of the curve as yields in the 2-5yr segment were down 2-4 bps while yields remained flat in other segments of the curve.
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6th July 2024
Fixed Income Weekly Update
The rally at the longer end of the curve took a breather last week on back of profit booking. The curve steepened marginally as yields at the shorter end of the curve were down by 3-4 bps while yields at the longer end of the curve were up by 2 bps.
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June 2024
We are more comfortable with valuations for Large Caps versus Mid and Small Caps
After high volatility in the first week of June, the equity market saw a sharp rally with the Nifty50 index ending the month with 6.6% return, and the NSE Mid Cap 100 and NSE Small Cap 100 indices generating returns of 7.8% and 9.7% for the month, respectively.
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29th June 2024
Fixed Income Weekly Update
The last day of the week marked a big event for the Indian bond market as Indian government FAR bonds got formally included in the JP Morgan EM Bond Index. Since the announcement of the inclusion, more than USD 11bn have come into Indian bond markets and more is expected to come.
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22nd June 2024
Fixed Income Weekly Update
The Indian bond yield curve has flattened further during the course of this month with the longer end of the curve outperforming the shorter end of the curve.
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25th May 2024
Fixed Income Weekly Update
Indian bond markets got a booster dose this week with RBI declaring a whopping double the expected dividend of Rs. 2.11 lakh crore which nobody was expecting.
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18th May 2024
Fixed Income Weekly Update
The week gone by was all about inflation and liquidity as bond yields continued to drift lower as ”core inflation” hit an all-time low in India.
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11th May 2024
Fixed Income Weekly Update
Bonds traded rangebound during the week and the 10yr benchmark bond yield was down 3bps as sentiment turned positive following the announcement of the buyback of Gsec worth Rs. 4000 crore by the Government of India.
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May 2024
Returns would be dictated by earnings growth rather than valuation multiple expansion
The Nifty50 index recorded a gain of 1.2% in April 2024, along with a rally in broader markets. NSE Mid Cap 100 and NSE Small Cap 100 indices were up 5.8% and 11.4% respectively for the month.
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4th May 2024
Fixed Income Weekly Update
Global cues continued to exert their influence on Indian markets with Indian bonds reacting to global cues. Value buying picked up at higher yields and with crude oil retracing lower from the recent highs, bonds were well bid most of the week.
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27th April 2024
Fixed Income Weekly Update
Global cues continued to be the dominant theme for Indian bonds as yields remained under pressure though value buying was seen at higher yields.
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20th April 2024
Fixed Income Weekly Update
The first month of FY25 has, so far, been weak for the bond markets contrary to expectations of solid beginning given the favourable underlying fundamentals.
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30th March 2024
Fixed Income Weekly Update
The last week of FY24 saw decent action in the Indian bond markets as record high SDL issuance at the beginning of the week pressurised the yields at the longer end of the curve but a lower than expected borrowing calendar for H1 of FY25 led to lower yields on the last day of the month.
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23rd March 2024
Fixed Income Weekly Update
There was plenty of action in the global bond markets led by central bank policy actions in the week gone by though the Indian bond markets were impacted more by the dynamics of the financial year end and the much higher than scheduled state bond auctions.
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8th March 2024
Fixed Income Weekly Update
Indian bond markets traded with a bullish undertone even in the face of continued strong economic data underscored by the favourable demand supply dynamics in the bond markets.
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February - 2024
Valuation excesses are especially stark in the Mid and Small Cap buckets
Market remained rangebound in February with the Nifty50 index generating 1.2% return and the Nifty Mid Cap 100 index and Nifty Small Cap 100 index correcting by 0.5% and 0.3% respectively for the month.
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27th February 2024
Fixed Income Weekly Update
Indian bond markets continued to trade in a range and were stable during the week in the absence of any major triggers. The benchmark 10yr bond ended the week at 7.06, down 2 bps over the week. The rest of the curve was also down by 2 bps over the week.
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24th February 2024
Fixed Income Weekly Update
Indian Bond markets were pretty stable and traded in a range with a bullish undertone during the week in the absence of any major triggers. The benchmark 10yr bond ended the week at 7.08 down by 2 bps on the week.
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17th February 2024
Fixed Income Weekly Update
The week gone by was all about the reinforcing of the strong underlying macroeconomic fundamentals of the Indian economy as Inflation came in line with expectations and Industrial production was stronger than expected.
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03 February 2024
Fixed Income Weekly Update
The interim Budget gave Indian bonds a fresh lease of life as the fiscal deficit and the gross borrowing numbers came in lower than market expectations.
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January 2024
Cautious on the near-term return potential for markets
After hitting a new all-time high during the month, Nifty50 closed flat in January. The Mid Cap and the Small Cap indices continued their upward trajectory with the Nifty Mid Cap 100 Index and the NSE Small Cap 100 Index closing the month with gains of 5.2% and 5.8% respectively.
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23rd January 2024
Fixed Income Weekly Update
Bond yields turned a bit volatile during the week though the 10yr bond yield ended flat from last week’s closing at 7.18%. Yields came down at the start of the week on the back of good inflation numbers but the rally fettered out on back of rise in US and global bond yields as markets recalibrated their expectations about rate cuts.
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20 January 2024
Fixed Income Weekly Update
Bond yields turned a bit volatile during the week though the 10yr bond yield ended flat from last week’s closing at 7.18%. Yields came down at the start of the week on the back of good inflation numbers but the rally fettered out on back of rise in US and global bond yields as markets recalibrated their expectations about rate cuts.
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13 January 2024
Fixed Income Weekly Update
Bond yields remained largely stable in a week dominated by vagaries of nature with respect to the monsoons in India and heat wave across Europe.
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December - 2023
We see lesser earnings volatility for domestic consumption-oriented sectors
Nifty50 closed with strong gains of 7.9% in December 2023, and ended CY2023 at near all-time high, on the back of retail participation, strong FPI/DII flows, domestic macroeconomic stability and positive earnings momentum. The NSE Mid Cap 100 Index and NSE Small Cap 100 Index were up around 7.6% and 6.9% respectively.
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30 December 2023
Fixed Income Weekly Update
Bond yields were stable in the last week of the year with the 10yr benchmark bond yield ending the week and the year at 7.18%. Money market yields came off towards the end of the week though the overnight lending rates stayed elevated close to the MSF rate.
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23 December 2023
Fixed Income Weekly Update
Bond yields stabilised this week after the US Fed induced rally of last week. In the absence of any major triggers, there was profit booking and bond yields were marginally higher in the week.
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16 December 2023
Fixed Income Weekly Update
Indian Bond yields followed the action in the global bond markets as yields fell sharply after the US Fed meeting. The dovish stance of the Fed meeting has effectively ended the rate tightening cycle and can thus be considered as the long awaited PIVOT in the global monetary tightening cycle.
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November - 2023
Strong (high growth + high quality) Mid Caps & Small Caps present opportunity for long term investors
In October 2023, markets went into consolidation mode with the NIFTY 50 index declining 2.8% for the month. The month saw broad based weakness in global markets led by Israel-Hamas conflict, rising US bond yields, and concerns about potential rate hikes dampening the global investor sentiment.
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02 December 2023
Fixed Income Weekly Update
Indian Bond Yields were stable during the week after an uptick in yields last week. Markets were keenly awaiting the Q2 FY24 GDP data for further guidance and also given the divergence between the estimates of RBI and the analyst community in respect of the GDP forecast for FY24.
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25 November 2023
Fixed Income Weekly Update
Indian Bond Yields inched higher during the week on profit booking after the sharp rally since the start of this month. The benchmark 10yr Bond yield had fallen by 15 bps from the start of the month till the end of last week.
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18 November 2023
Fixed Income Weekly Update
Bond Yields came down with a flattening bias this week as crude oil and global bond yields came off sharply in response to lower inflation. The benchmark 10yr bond yield came down by 10bps ending the week at 7.21%.
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11 November 2023
Fixed Income Weekly Update
Bond Yields were steady this week as crude oil sold off towards a more than three month low even as the middle east conflict raged on. Stable global bond yields and lower crude helped Indian Bond yields as the benchmark 10yr bond ended the week at 7.30% almost flat from last week’s closing of 7.31% but the real surprise of the week was INR.
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October - 2023
Broad based weakness
In October 2023, markets went into consolidation mode with the NIFTY 50 index declining 2.8% for the month. The month saw broad based weakness in global markets led by Israel-Hamas conflict, rising US bond yields, and concerns about potential rate hikes dampening the global investor sentiment.
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04 November 2023
Fixed Income Weekly Update
Indian Bond yields retraced lower from their last week highs tracking global bond yields which trended lower as the US Fed paused while indicating that they may be at the end of the rate hiking cycle given the tightening in financial conditions due to the rise in long term bond yields.
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28 October 2023
Fixed Income Weekly Update
Indian Bond yields were stable during the week amidst continuing uncertainty on the geopolitical front. The benchmark 10yr bond yield ended the week at 7.36% flat from last weeks close.
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21 October 2023
Fixed Income Weekly Update
Indian Bond yields stayed elevated during the week as crude and global bond yields continued their uptrend. The benchmark 10yr bond yield ended the week at 7.36% up 4 bps from last week.
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14 October 2023
Fixed Income Weekly Update
The bond sell off induced by the hawkish than expected RBI policy on 6th abated a bit as inflation came in lower than expected. CPI inflation came in 5.02% below consensus expectations of 5.40% led by broad based deceleration of food prices.
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September - 2023
Optimistic on the long-term outlook for Indian equities
Despite global challenges, Indian equities resumed their upward trajectory in September with the Nifty50 Index rising 2% for the month. Based on our internal analysis, ‘lower growth + lower quality’ companies have significantly outperformed their ‘higher growth + higher quality’ counterparts during the month, and on a year-to-date basis as well.
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23 September 2023
Fixed Income Weekly Update
Finally Indian government bonds got included in the JP Morgan Bond Index. Indian markets had started anticipating such a move since the start of the month and speculation had grown in the last couple of weeks after news reports started circulating regarding the inclusion.
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16 September 2023
Fixed Income Weekly Update
Indian Bond yields were volatile during the week. Bonds started the week on a weak footing as rising crude oil price and global bond yields dented sentiments and the benchmark 10yr Bond yield touched a high of 7.25% on the first day of the week before value buying crept in.
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August - 2023
Macro takes front seat
August 2023 saw deceleration in progress of monsoon, higher than expected inflation print and unexpected increase in CRR requirement for banks by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) resulting in the Nifty50 index correcting by 2.5%. The rally in small and midcap indices continued due to strong buying by domestic institutional investors.
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28th August 2023
Fixed Income Weekly Update
Indian Bond yields remained largely stable during the week though the curve flattened further with short end (2-3yrs) yields rising by 3-5 bps while the longer end bond yields stable or lower by couple of basis points.
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21 August 2023
Fixed Income Weekly Update
Indian Bond yields remained stable during the week after the benchmark 10yr bond yield touched 7.25% last week. There was decent buying interest from investors as the benchmark 10yr bond yield touched 7.25% as value buying emerged.
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July - 2023
A mixed bag of corporate results
Indian equities continued their upward trajectory, led by strong FII buying and risk-on sentiment in the market in July with the Nifty50 Index gaining 2.9% for the month.
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31 July 2023
Fixed Income Weekly Update
Bond yields continued their northward journey this week as global yields surged led by the bear steepening in the US curve which led the 10yr US yield towards 4.20% as higher supply of treasuries spooked the long end of the US bond curve.
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24 July 2023
Fixed Income Weekly Update
Bond yields edged higher in the last two days after being stable through the week. The erratic distribution of monsoons and global geopolitical developments sustain the concerns on food Inflation.
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17 July 2023
Fixed Income Weekly Update
Bond yields remained largely stable in a week dominated by vagaries of nature with respect to the monsoons in India and heat wave across Europe.
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June - 2023
Market hits new highs
The Nifty rallied 3.5% in June and reached all-time high on the back of positive US economic data, receding inflationary pressures, subdued crude oil prices and some uptick in the progress in monsoon
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May - 2023
Positive momentum continues
Amid global volatility, Indian markets delivered a healthy 2.6% return in May 2023. The mid caps and small caps outperformed the large caps with their respective indices being up by 6.2% and 5.1% respectively.
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April - 2023
Well-placed despite global challenges
April 2023 saw the NIFTY moving up sharply (+ 4.1%), given easing of macro concerns and better flows. Mid Cap and Small Cap indices outperformed the Nifty as they gained 5.9% and 7.5% respectively, during the month.
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March - 2023
Relative underperformance makes risk reward better
For the month of March 2023, as well for the financial year, NIFTY was largely flat. Midcaps too were flat for the month, though slightly up (1.2%) for the financial year, while small caps were down 1.8% for the month, and down 13.8% for the year.
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Feb - 2023
Concerns remain, so do the opportunities
The Nifty Index declined 2% in February - its third consecutive month of decline. Mid-cap and small-cap indices were down nearly 2% and 4%, respectively. Sector-wise, power, metals and oil & gas were the laggards.
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Jan - 2023
Prudence over populism
Indian markets declined by 2.4% (NIFTY) in the month of January and underperformed most of its developed as well as developing market peers.
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Dec - 2022
Consolidating yet outperforming
In tandem with most global markets, Indian markets too fell this month, with the NIFTY50 down 3.6%. In the broader markets, miand small caps, though down, outperformed the large caps, with their respective indices being down 1.7% and 2.5%, respectively.
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Nov - 2022
Macro Stability and Earnings growth should keep India in good stead
The Indian markets had another strong month with the NIFTY gaining 4.1% during the month. In the broader markets, large caps outperformed the mid and small caps with their respective indices being up 1.9% and 3% respectively.
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Oct - 2022
Markets are supported by government focus on macro stability; corporate earnings are holding
The Indian markets had a strong month and closed in the green (Nifty50 +5.4%) outperforming most regional markets such as Malaysia,
Indonesia, Taiwan, Shanghai and Hong Kong.
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Sept - 2022
Relatively well placed
In line with global markets, Indian markets corrected in September (Nifty was down 3.7%), though it managed to outperform most of the developed as well as emerging market peers. Global events weighed heavy with the Fed raising rates by 75bps and remaining hawkish.
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Aug - 2022
Stable macro and resilient earnings growth support premium valuations
Indian markets continued their momentum in the month of August, ending up 2.4%. This compares favorably to some of the developed markets which were down for the month, on the back of a hawkish stance of the Fed.
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July - 2022
Resilient earnings and flows continue to support markets
July 2022 was the best month in this calendar year, with the Nifty gaining ~8.7% in the month. Midcaps outperformed the Nifty,gaining 12% during the month, while the Smallcap Index was broadly in line with the Nifty.
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June - 2022
Markets are factoring in the global slowdown, but India is better placed
Along with most global markets, Indian markets too were down 4.8% in June 2022 on the back of concerns over a global recession and tightening stance from central banks.
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May - 2022
Near-term concerns priced into valuations
Indian markets were down 3% in May 2022 on the back of worries over a global economic slowdown amid aggressive policy tightening,
lockdowns in China, and ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict.
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April - 2022
Earnings stable despite inflationary pressures
In line with global markets, Indian markets too were weak in April 2022 (NIFTY down 2.1%) on the back of continued tightening in developed markets and geopolitical tensions.
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Mar - 2022
Positive outlook amidst transitory tensions
Despite the geopolitical tensions, higher crude prices and Fed rate hike, Indian markets were up 4%, ending the financial year with a 19% gain, probably on the back of the ruling party at the Centre winning 4 of the 5 state elections.
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Feb - 2022
Geopolitical concerns cause upheavals
In tandem with global markets, Indian markets also fell (NIFTY down 3.1% during the month) on the back of geopolitical tensions soaring amidst Russia-Ukraine crisis.
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Jan - 2022
Focus on growth consistency augur well
The start of the calendar year was flattish, with the NIFTY returning -0.1% during the month. The buoyancy seen in the first half of the month retracted later on concerns of rate hikes by the US Fed, rising bond yields, and higher crude prices.
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Dec - 2021
Tempering expectations
Indian markets ended the last month of the calendar year with a 2.2% return. The Midcap Index rose by 2.7% and Smallcap Index by 5.9%. The positive returns on the indices mask the intra-month volatility and continued FII selling.
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Nov -2021
Proceeding with Cautious Optimism: Unlocked economy and inflation presents a mixed outlook
Indian stocks recorded their first monthly loss since April this year as fears over the Omicron variant added to the concerns about high valuations and potential tightening of liquidity conditions. The benchmark Nifty50 Index fell 3.9% in November–the lowest since March 2020–as a poor equity-market debut for India’s largest-ever initial public offering also soured sentiment.
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Oct -2021
Cautiously Optimistic View - Equity Market View
The key equity benchmarks hit all-time high levels in the middle of the month. However, the gains were not sustained and the indices ended almost flat amid concerns over steep valuations, rising commodity prices, inflationary pressure and liquidity normalization signals by the central bank.
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Sep -2021
Indian equity market outperforms peers - Equity Market View
The Indian equity market continued its positive run, with the NIFTY rising 2.8% in Sep 2021, outperforming both its developed and developing peers. A combination of lower covid case counts and healthy pace of vaccinations, has ensured that the market remained in a positive trajectory even as concerns emanating from China (a result of the debt of a large realty company) kept some of the other markets jittery.
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Aug -2021
Index, inflation trend strong - Equity Market View
The benchmark indices ended at record high levels, with the Nifty Index gaining 8.7% - the best month in CY21, led by index heavyweights. However, the broader markets underperformed, with the Nifty Midcap 100 Index gaining 2.3% and Nifty Small Cap 100 Index declining 2.3%. Among sector indices, Power, IT and Oil & Gas gained more than 10%. Metals and Realty indices ended with a marginal loss of 1.9% and 2.9%.
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Jul- 2021
Mid and small caps see rally – Equity Market View
As in June 2021, while broader markets were largely range-bound in July 2021 and closed marginally higher (NIFTY +0.4%) they saw a strong surge in the midcaps (+3.2%) and small caps (+8.2%) segments. Realty, Metals and Cement sectors were the outperformers while Auto, Utilities and Energy underperformed.
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June -2021
Markets get the growth boost - Equity Market View
While the broader markets were largely rangebound in June 2021 and closed marginally higher (NIFTY +0.9%), there was a strong surge in the midcaps/smallcaps space with the indices up ~5% in the month. The BSE SmallCap 250 Index has given positive returns for 15 straight months – something never before witnessed by the market (the previous record was 8 months).
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May -2021
Growth, results better than expected - Equity Market View
Indian markets continued their upward journey with the Nifty Index up 6.7% in the month on the back of a decline in new Covid infections (down 60% from its peak) and the possibility of return to normalcy gathering pace. The broader markets outperformed with BSE Midcap 150 Index up 6.6% and BSE Small Cap 250 Index up 9.1%.
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Apr -2021
Vaccines, earnings offer dose of relief - Equity Market View
Renewed restrictions across India, due to a surge in daily Covid-19 cases to 400k+, led to the Nifty (-0.4%) underperforming the global markets during April. FIIs turned net sellers for the first time in 2021 as the healthcare infrastructure of the country appeared to be overwhelmed with news reports of shortage of hospital beds, oxygen and medical supplies.
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Mar -2021
Constructive outlook despite an unrepeatable performance in FY21 - Equity Market View
Amidst rising volatility, Nifty closed 1.2% higher in March 2021. It came off its highs as possibility of a second wave of coronavirus and rising bond yields played spoilsport. However, for the fiscal year, Nifty was up 71% which was its best performance in last ten years.
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Feb -2021
Market shows promise of recovery after the unlock phase - Equity Market View
Amid volatile sessions, Nifty-50 Index gained 6.7% in February. The month started on a positive note with the announcement of the Union Budget. Key benchmark indices gained 5% on February 1 as there was no change in tax rates, the focus was on growth and increase in spending.
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Jan -2021
Budget boost to stock market - Equity Market View
After a strong December, Indian markets corrected sharply in the second half of January, leading to a 2.5% decline for the month. This was primarily due to weak global markets, risk-on sentiment, and FIIs selling. While Auto and Telecom sectors were outperformers, Pharma and Metals were the laggards..
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Jan-2021
Expectations from the Budget 2021
India faced one of its weakest years on record, impacted severely by the pandemic. Economic activity slumped through the initial months of the pandemic until June before gradually resuming post September.
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Dec - 2020
Ending the year on a high view
The year 2020 ended at close to all-time highs for markets, with Nifty gaining 7.8% in Dec 2020 helped by continued inflows from FIIs on the back of the risk-on sentiment. Interestingly, the month saw the Nifty Index closing in the red only on 3 days – the lowest number since its launch..
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Nov - 2020
A Period of Positivity - Equity Market View
The Nifty50 Index rose sharply in November (+11.4%), touching new lifetime highs and outperforming regional markets such as Indonesia, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Malaysia, and Philippines. A gradual improvement in economic activity, driven by pent-up and festive demand,
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Oct - 2020
Near term volatility? - Equity Market View
After a slight dip in the month of September, Indian markets continued their positive run in Oct 2020 and was up 3.5% (NIFTY) on the back of good inflows from FIIs. Globally, markets were a bit choppy as US elections related uncertainty and the re-emergence of lockdowns in Europe weighed on markets..
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Sep - 2020
Unlocking the Economy - Equity Market View
After 3 straight months of gains, Indian markets faced bouts of volatility in September, with Nifty declining by 1.2%. Broader markets fared better, with Nifty Midcap Index gaining 1.8% and Nifty Small Cap Index gaining 4.2%. IT and Healthcare were the top performing sectors, while Financials and Telecom dragged the markets down..
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Aug - 2020
Strong market despite mixed numbers - Equity Market View
Indian Equities rose for the third straight month in August (Nifty +2.8%), with the US markets also touching new highs during the month. Broader markets outperformed, with the BSE Mid-cap gaining 6.6% and BSE Small-cap gaining 10.1%. Among sector indices, the BSE Metals index gained 13%, followed by Realty (+11.6%) and Banks (+9.6%)..
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July - 2020
Positive news cheers markets - Equity Market View
July was another strong month for Indian equity markets (in line with EM peers) with the Nifty 50 Index rallying 7.5% during the month. The key positives are; better than expected Q1FY21 corporate results (on low expectations base), progress in numerous Covid-19 vaccine trials & treatment, and signs of earlier-than-expected normalization in economic activity.
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June 2020
Hopes of recovery but uncertainty remains- Equity Market View
Equity markets were strong in June, with the benchmark Nifty Index moving up by 7.5%. The broader market outperformed with Nifty Midcap100 Index rallying 10.8% and Nifty SmallCap100 Index rallying 15.3% (the best month for small caps in 6 years). All sectors were up vs May with Realty, Financials and Auto being the outperformers.
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May 2020
Weak economy but strong markets- Equity Market View
After registering a strong rally in April (up 15% - the highest move in a month in over ten years), May month witnessed a correction of 2.8%. Disappointed with the fiscal stimulus, the Nifty 50 corrected in the first half but recovered in the second half on improving global sentiment, as economies across the world emerged out of lockdowns.
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Apr -2020
Waiting for the economic activity to return- Equity Market View
The nation was under lockdown throughout the month of April. The Nifty-50 Index recovered 14.7% in the month (best calendar month since May’09). The BSE mid-cap and BSE small-cap Indices posted 14% and 16% gains respectively. Among sectoral indices, BSE healthcare gained 26%, followed by auto (+24%) and oil & gas (+20%) indices.
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Mar -2020
Fiscal sops and stimulus to push long end yields - Fixed Income Market View
CPI for March 2020 printed at 6.58% which was higher than RBI's target of 4% but lower than market expectation of 6.72%. Core inflation (helped by petering off of mobile tariffs) also declined from 4.16% to 4.08%.
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Mar-2020
Market View and portfolio positioning
The equity markets globally and in India have seen a massive correction due to the uncertainties associated with the global macro linked primarily to coronavirus and also the volatility associated with crude oil. The issue with coronavirus is the uncertainty with regards to the time it will linger, fatality rates and the fear of the unknown
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Mar-2020
Impact of recent market volatility on Arbitrage Funds
The recent market movements have been unprecedented and this has led to several questions being raised in the minds of the investor as well as the distribution community. Please check some key points on the impact of recent market volatility on Arbitrage Funds.
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Feb -2020
Fear of virus bigger than the virus itself ?- Equity Market View
In February 2020, all the major global indices closed in the red. With high chances of WHO declaring the coronavirus disease as a pandemic, global markets saw a sharp drawdown (US Markets saw the worst weekly fall since the GFC).
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Jan-2020
Earnings are seeing buoyancy led by lower tax rates and low base of FY 2019- Equity Market View
The Union Budget was presented on 1st February and while there were no stark negatives, a lack of stimulus and policy measures disappointed in the backdrop of heightened expectations.
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Dec-2019
RBI steps in to cool-off yields - Fixed Income Market View
There is a dichotomy that is prevalent in the markets with macros being weak (high fiscal deficit, overall slowdown, inflation inching up, low credit growth) while markets are scaling new highs on the back of continued flows, risk-on sentiment getting stronger and in general loose fiscal policies.
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Nov-2019
A modest recovery in growth is expected in second half of FY20 - Equity Market View
Indian markets rallied in the second half of the month driven by both global risk-on and some positive reforms announced locally. Market sentiment was buoyed following the
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Oct-2019
Short-end rates fall on rate cut, long-end unchanged on fiscal worries - Fixed Income Market View
Result Season of Q2FY20 is seeing decent earnings growth as many companies are shifting to the reduced tax rates as announced by the government.
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Sep-2019
Definite shift in government approach towards corporate India - Equity Market View
Government has been talking about accelerating economic growth for quite some time and articulated its aspiration to be $5tn economy by 2024 but something missing to make this reality
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Aug-2019
Yields harden despite rate cut as fiscal concerns emerge - Fixed Income Market View
Pessimism is all around as major newspaper headlines are all about deteriorating economy, job losses etc. Though overall scenario looks challenging in the near term..
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Jul-2019
Volatility in the near term cannot be ruled out - Equity Market View
Budget presented in July post the completion of the general elections, stuck to the path of fiscal prudence and lowered fiscal deficit target to 3.3% of GDP.
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Jun-2019
Weak growth, improving liquidity and rate cut push down yields - Fixed Income Market View
Come July, the full year budget, progress of monsoon, trade war developments and RBI policy meet would be key monitorables. Economic growth and earnings recovery are key
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May-2019
Economy is currently in a transitionary mode - Equity Market View
Overall FY 19 NIFTY earnings growth stood close to 10%. Earnings shortfall in financials and Auto sectors are partially offset by currency led gains in IT sector.
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Apr-2019
Election event risk, tight liquidity keep yields elevated - Fixed Income Market View
Quarter 4 earnings have been mixed so far, though result season still has still one month to go. On 23rd May, the results of the ongoing general elections would be announced and provide short term direction to markets.
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